The Legislature resumes on October 6, and the session ahead will be anything but routine. The BCNDP government faces a challenging fiscal environment, continuing economic uncertainty brought about by American tariffs, and a provincial public service strike going on its sixth week—all while holding onto the slimmest of majorities.
Throughout the session, Hilltop will be tracking legislative developments, analyzing political dynamics and identifying windows for stakeholder influence – so that you can understand the forces shaping public policy and take action to reach your goals.
Tariff Response and Economic Diversification
Tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump continue to cast a long shadow on the B.C. economy. Finance Minister Brenda Bailey’s first quarterly report on the 2025/26 budget projected an $11.6 billion deficit—$665 million higher than originally forecast—and lower economic growth due to tariff impacts.
Trade diversification has emerged as a cornerstone of B.C.’s tariff response. Premier David Eby’s recent trade mission to New York City emphasized clean energy and critical minerals, while European and Asian missions earlier this year highlighted B.C.’s strengths in sectors including life sciences, technology, agriculture, forestry, ocean science, sustainability and innovation.
The Premier and Finance Minister continue to emphasize reduced reliance on U.S. markets as the key to B.C.’s economic prosperity and stronger communities. The Province is expected to reveal more details about its economic response to American tariffs this fall.
Industrial Strategy: Capturing Federal Defence Spending
Beyond trade diversification, B.C. is positioning itself to capture billions in new federal defence and security spending. Prime Minister Mark Carney has committed to boost defence spending to five percent of GDP by 2035, with opportunities for B.C. in shipbuilding, aerospace, aviation, and related sectors.
A provincial industrial strategy, expected this fall, will align with federal defence investments and focus on marine, aerospace, life sciences, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing sectors. Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon noted that federal commitments could mean billions in additional annual spending, creating significant opportunities for B.C. to secure investments.
Major Projects Hit Fast-Forward This Fall
As another tranche of economic policy to offset U.S. tariffs, the Province continues advancing its list of 18 major projects identified for expedited approvals and development.
The North Coast Transmission Line project is expected to get a boost this fall session with new legislation, pledged by Premier Eby in his annual UBCM address. Eby noted that the transmission line—which will run between Prince George and Terrace—is critical to support future energy demands and unlock economic development in northern B.C.
Two projects on the Province’s fast-track list—the Red Chris Mine Expansion and Kitimat LNG—were recently designated as projects of national interest by the Government of Canada’s new Major Projects Office, signalling federal-provincial alignment on advancing critical infrastructure this fall.
Are Housing Developments Around the Corner?
Federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has indicated that B.C. may soon see announcements about housing on federally-owned sites. Premier Eby raised B.C.’s inclusion in the federal housing initiative during his recent trip to Ottawa, expressing confidence that federal lands represent “huge opportunities” to increase housing supply. Further announcements are anticipated this fall as suitable sites across the province are identified.
Opposition Update: New Leadership, New Dynamics
Two parties are returning to the legislature with fresh leadership mandates, reshaping the dynamics of the fall session. BC Conservative Leader John Rustad received 70% support from party members in a turbulent, four-month leadership review that included allegations of voter fraud. With Rustad’s recent ejection of MLA Elenore Sturko from caucus, the Official Opposition now stands at 40 seats—four fewer than immediately following the October 2024 election.
Newly-elected BC Green Party Leader Emily Lowan will not take a seat in the Legislature on October 6, however she is expected to run in a future by-election or general election. In her initial days as BC Green leader, Lowan has signalled her intention to renegotiate the Cooperation and Responsible Government Accord before the next provincial budget, and has plans for extensive stakeholder consultation this fall.
Hilltop Can Help You Engage
Navigating the fall legislative session requires understanding not just what’s on the agenda, but when and how to engage effectively. Reach out to our team to discuss how we can support your engagement strategy this fall. We’re here to help you navigate these dynamics and position you for success.