On Saturday night, voters in some of BC’s largest population centres chose change, while others chose continuity and stability. As the CBC eloquently put in their coverage, “Vancouver shifted to the left, New Westminster shifted to the right, Surrey shifted back to Doug McCallum.”
The results from BC’s 161 local governments don’t fit neatly onto a traditional left-right political spectrum, what is clear is that a large number of voters – whether in response to infighting, inefficiency or some other force – made their voices heard by swinging against the status quo, whatever that was in their community. Even for the incumbents who did get re-elected, many of them saw their margins shrunk since their last victories in 2022.
Still poring over the coverage? Here are a few things that stood out to me.
The impact of dual (duelling?) campaigns: Who showed up and what it means
Earlier in October, my colleague Jeanne Legua wrote about the potential for overlapping provincial and municipal campaigns to create a crowded political environment and increased competition for voter attention. She wasn’t the only one watching that angle. When the provincial election was called, many were worried that it may overshadow the local election campaigns already underway. A valid concern given that turnout in municipal elections have been low historically.
While Elections BC is still finalizing numbers, early signs indicate a vast improvement in voter turnout across the province compared to the 2022 election:
- Over 43% of Vancouverites turned out to vote, a 20 year high.
- Surrey had its highest turnout in 36 years at 37.4%.
- In Victoria, over 41% of residents voted, up from 35% in 2022.
And the turnout trend held in other large municipalities as Burnaby, Richmond, Langley, Abbotsford, Coquitlam, Prince George, Kelowna, Kamloops, and Nanaimo also saw increases.
As for what it means, high turnout is often a sign of an electorate seeking change and can also indicate that voters are becoming more politically engaged on the local issues that affect their daily lives. What remains to be seen is whether this local turnout trend will transfer to the provincial campaign. While preliminary data shows that just over one in ten voters cast a ballot in the first three days of provincial advance votes, that number is roughly 8% below the record-setting early voting numbers from 2024.
The results: Who’s in. Who’s out. And who’s back.
Vancouver goes Green
Green Party candidate—now the first Green Party mayor—Pete Fry was the prime beneficiary of the voter boost in Vancouver. The results were an astounding upset for incumbent mayor Ken Sim, after mayoral candidates from Vancouver’s other left-of-centre parties stepped aside to “unite the left” earlier in the race. Heading into election day, none of the polls correctly predicted the 14% gap between Fry and Sim based on unofficial results.
Vancouverites also elected a supermajority of progressive city councillors from COPE (4), Greens (4), and OneCity (1), with only one ABC incumbent re-elected from the party’s sweep in 2022. Candidates from the three main progressive parties also swept Park Board and School Board.
Looking ahead, how this city council works together to deliver the change Vancouverites clearly are calling for will be carefully watched. Looking across Green, COPE, and OneCity policy platforms, there are many similarities: supporting more non-market housing and renter protection, climate action, better public services, improving transit, and supporting non-police resources in response to the city’s mental health crisis and concerns around public safety. Where the parties diverge is on the scale, speed, and delivery mechanisms for the policy changes they want to achieve.
This new Council has now inherited the heavy task of finding a path to deliver on housing and infrastructure commitments, while overcoming whatever ideological differences may exist and balancing the need to build with speed with extremely real and vocal concerns from neighbourhoods worried about the pace of change and responding to calls from small businesses wanting support for a more vibrant local economy. Not to mention for large infrastructure projects to move ahead, the city will require support from the other two levels of government, which are also operating within a heavily constrained fiscal environment (UBC Skytrain extension, I’m looking at you).
On election night, Fry highlighted his eight years of council experience and was optimistic about his ability to lead and collaborate with a mixed council and deliver real results. City Hall watchers will be following carefully.
Surrey goes back…to Doug McCallum
Despite polls heavily favouring incumbent Brenda Locke, another big surprise on election night was former mayor Doug McCallum returning for his third stint as Mayor of Surrey, this time bringing more of his Safe Surrey Coalition along. (Granted, the same polls also signalled a strong desire for change at Surrey City Hall.)
McCallum’s slate won seven out of eight council seats, while Surrey First Education won five out of six seats on School Board. As part of his acceptance speech, McCallum appointed Mandeep Nagra as his deputy mayor, a local business owner and city councillor since 2018.
The municipal race was dominated by a few issues: concerns around public safety and ongoing extortion threats, as well as adapting to rapid demographic changes and population growth while tackling housing affordability, growing social service capacity in schools and hospitals, and expanding transit and community infrastructure. Consequentially, these are also top priorities for voters in the provincial election. Surrey has always been an important battleground for provincial parties. In 2024, the provincial riding of Surrey—Guildford was famously decided by only 22 votes, while nearby ridings of Surrey City Centre, Surrey—Serpentine River, and Surrey—Panorama were won by only a few hundred. Given the one-seat majority the NDP had before calling this election, Surrey voters may very well end up deciding who forms government provincially on October 24.
Lastly, one of McCallum’s key promises was to withdraw Surrey from the Metro Vancouver Regional District, keeping only core utility services of water, sewer and waste. In the provincial race, the BC Conservatives have also promised to move more of Metro Vancouver’s non-core service responsibilities (i.e. housing, economic development, climate policy, etc.) to municipalities. Given the large number of newly-elected mayors and councillors in Metro Vancouver (14 out of 21 Metro Vancouver municipalities have non-incumbent mayors-elect) and the regional body’s decision to reduce the size of its own boards, we will be monitoring in the next few months how this new and diverse group of local politicians work together on regional priorities, especially on important issues such as transit expansion and economic development.
Victoria and Kelowna stay the course
Outside of Metro Vancouver, incumbents in Victoria and Kelowna were re-elected although with smaller margins than in 2022.
In Kelowna, Mayor Tom Dyas was able to fend off a formidable challenger in former MP and incumbent city councillor Ron Cannan with a margin of less than 1,000 votes. Kelowna also re-elected three other incumbent councillors along with five first-timers. Among the first timers is Brady Rogers, who briefly went viral online after launching a campaign with the cheeky slogan of “I barely want to do this” before pivoting to raising thoughtful questions about local infrastructure use and bringing more young people into politics.
In Victoria, Mayor Marianne Alto was comfortably re-elected by a margin of nearly 10% after a fractured eight-candidate race. Three new candidates were also elected to council, which may make it harder for Alto to build majority support for her initiatives over the next four years.
The other ballot box question Victoria residents faced was a non-binding plebiscite about amalgamating with Saanich. Preliminary results show that over 60% of Victoria voters supported the idea, while just under 70% of Saanich voters opposed the same question. The Save our Saanich electoral slate – which opposed amalgamation – won both the mayor’s seat and all five council seats after the incumbent mayor chose not to run for re-election. Amalgamating the two municipalities would have led to a combined population comparable to Burnaby but that is now a question for another election cycle.
Some other notable results
Here’s a quick summary of some other races I found interesting that you might hear about this week:
- Melissa Granum is the new Mayor of Delta. Granum soundly – and surprisingly – beat two incumbent councillors in Dylan Kruger (who many saw as the more likely challenger) and George Harvie (who saw one of the heaviest losses among incumbents). Kruger and Harvie shared a history of conflict on council, and it seems like Delta voters decided to sidestep the drama by choosing Granum.
- Richmond elected its first new mayor in 25 years after incumbent Malcolm Brodie chose not to run. Former BC Liberal MLA Rob Howard won a tight race with former Olympian and incumbent councillor Alexa Loo.
- New Westminster elected its first ever Indigenous mayor in Daniel Fontaine, who is Métis. His New Westminster Progressives slate achieved a near total sweep of council and school board. Despite the name, the municipal party is viewed as right-of-centre on core issues. As a traditional NDP stronghold in BC, only time will tell if this was an ideological shift in the electorate, or simply a vote for change.
- Bucking the trend in Surrey and Vancouver, Burnaby incumbent Mike Hurley was comfortably re-elected, and his Burnaby Citizens Association retained its long-standing council majority, winning seven out of eight seats.
- On the North Shore, long-time journalist Kirk LaPointe defeated incumbent Mark Sager in West Vancouver, while Linda Buchanan and Mike Little were re-elected in the City of North Vancouver and District of North Vancouver respectively.
- In the Tri-Cities, incumbent Port Moody mayor Meghan Lahti lost to Haven Lurbiecki, while long-time councillor Craig Hodge replaced outgoing mayor of nearly two decades, Richard Stewart, in Coquitlam. Brad West was re-elected in Port Coquitlam with a landslide victory (91%).
- Next door in Pitt Meadows, incumbent Nicole MacDonald prevailed, while Dan Ruimy lost to Jerry Kok in Maple Ridge.
- In the Fraser Valley, incumbent mayors in both the City and Township of Langley were defeated by newcomers in Delaney Mack and Jay Lundgren respectively.
Every vote counts…literally
The Village of Lytton deserves mention here as election officials have confirmed a dead heat in the mayor’s race between incumbent Denise O’Connor and challenger Jennifer Thoss—each having won 45 votes. As residents of Peachland will remember from 2018, and residents of Canal Flats from 2022, the next step is a judicial recount conducted by the Provincial Court of BC. In both cases, the judicial recount confirmed the tie, and both contests were resolved when a BC judge put the two contenders’ names in a hat and drew the winner.
A reminder for anyone who has ever questioned the power of a single ballot.
What now?
Now, the real work begins.
Municipal politics can be grueling—mayors and councillors attend long meetings with heavy agendas, and make decisions on issues that have immediate and consequential impacts on residents’ lives. Every mayor, council, and board now faces the challenge of delivering on their ambitious campaign promises, while navigating intricate local dynamics, difficult fiscal constraints, and unknown complexities negotiating with other levels of government. Election promises are easy to make compared to the knotty, complicated process of delivering on them.
People are also rightly turning their minds to the last week of the provincial election. Will the call for change also come for David Eby, or will enough voters find the idea of a Doerkson-led Conservative government a bridge too far whether they mark their ballot during advance voting or on general election day October 24?
Hilltop can help
There has never been a more eventful time in BC politics. With new governments being sworn in at local and provincial levels over the coming weeks, I don’t expect a break in the action for a while yet.
As businesses, non-profits, advocacy groups, and other organizations turn their attention to the work of making inroads with a new generation of decision makers, it will be interesting to see what new priorities emerge and what previously stalled projects find fresh support.
Translation: there is no time like the present to review your advocacy strategies.
At Hilltop, we can help you tailor your organization’s public affairs plan to the ever-shifting political landscape in BC. Our cross-partisan and multi-regional team can help you assess the new landscape, identify opportunities, and build a practical engagement strategy to make sure you’re ready for whatever, and whoever, comes next. Reach out today.